MEXICO A "FAILED STATE THREAT" BECAUSE OF DRUG WARS?

Mexico is in trouble and increasingly become a important problem to his neighbor
United States, because of the violence, pressure and corrupting power the Mexican drug cartels has been gaining throughout this years (particularly the gulf and sinaloan cartel).


Colombia used to be the center of the production and distribution of mainly cocaine and Marihuana, and during the 80’s and the 90’s; And in this Andean country the drug cartels increase his power through the corrupting charm of money, and in that era (specially the 80’s) the Colombian society was permissive with this traffic, Because in that time the U.S. was more concern about the cold war and his enemies in Eastern Europe behind the iron curtain than a drug trafficking problem in a country in the corner of South America (nuclear threats beats Drug Trafficking).

Now the congress of the United States approved a package to help the anti drug war in Mexico for about U$400 million, Colombia now has a U$550 million after years of lobbying, but Mexico because of being a neighbor can get it in just a few months, after a serious and violent episodes in this war.
Now just look at the facts in Mexico:

- Increasing violence (the last year 5.000 homicides were connected with this war).
- Increasing numbers in all types of violence (kidnapping is increasingly at a very fast speed)
- GDP of Mexico U$ 893 Billions at the end of 2007
- In 2008 they spent 0.46% of his GDP, nearly U$4.1 Billion in defense (less than Colombia!)) Who has a GDP of U$249.8 Billions (both were calculated with the current exchange rate, not PPP), Colombia invest 2.2% of his GDP in defense.
-Colombia spends over U$5.5 Billions in weapons in order to fight the Drug trafficking guerrilla, and some other groups like some factions of the paramilitary forces (Mexico needs to increase his defense expenditures and create a sensible strategy to fight this threat)



Stratfor an intelligence web site made an overview of this increasing spiral violence spiraling, lets see:
- “Edgar Millan Gomez was shot dead in his own home in Mexico City on May 8, responsible for overseeing most of Mexico’s counternarcotics efforts. He orchestrated the January arrest of one of the leaders of the Sinaloa cartel, Alfredo Beltran Leyva.”
- “The week before, Roberto Velasco Bravo died when he was shot in the head at close range by two armed men near his home in Mexico City. He was the director of organized criminal investigations in a tactical analysis unit of the federal police. The Mexican government believes the Sinaloa drug cartel ordered the assassinations of Velasco Bravo and Millan Gomez. Combined with the assassination of other federal police officials in Mexico City, we now see a pattern of intensifying warfare in Mexico City.”
The fighting also extended to the killing of the son of the Sinaloa cartel leader, Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman Loera, who was killed outside a shopping center in Culiacan, the capital of Sinaloa state. Also killed was the son of reputed top Sinaloa money launderer Blanca Margarita Cazares Salazar in an attack carried out by 40 gunmen. According to sources, Los Zetas, the enforcement arm of the rival Gulf cartel, carried out the attack. Reports also indicate a split between Sinaloa and a resurgent Juarez cartel, which also could have been behind the Millan Gomez killing.“
This summarizes the most recent spiral of violence created for the drug trafficking, the question is? This would end soon?, and the answer seems to be a painful: NO.
While Colombia engaged a frontal fight against the drug cartels in the 90`s, and after this country defeat the cartel of Medellin and the cartel of Cali, No without a high cost in human lives and after a serious threat of become a failed state in the 90`s., this defeated cartels in Colombia lose the distribution business in the U.S. a part of the chain that starting in that time to be controlled by the Mexican cartels.
It seems that the story is happening again, while the cartels grow, a lot of people benefits from the money they irrigate, and when this business reach a certain point the fights between the cartels over the control of territories and the manage of the huge amounts of money that this business produce.
Right now that is the scenario we are seeing in today’s Mexico, off course the society felt comfortable while the narcs do they business and spent money like crazy people, but once they reach this inflexion point the things began to seem nasty and the violence skyrocketing in biblical proportions; you can expect more horrendous crimes from this war.
Mexico needs to learn the lessons from Colombia at a fast pace!, they already have a Free Trade agreement ant his time to market is unbeatable but still it seems they are not capable to spread the benefits from that prosperity to his citizens, who insist in crossing the borders heading towards U.S.A.; And it seems that this happens because a high level of corruption, bureaucracy, and lack of quality in the justice management.
The current Mexican president took the initiative to fight against the drug cartels and this is only the awakening of this nightmare for Mexico, there is going to be a lot more to come, and now it seems that the international pariah regarding drugs will be Mexico instead of Colombia.
Mexico is about to take the painful road, but there is a difference now; Obama seems to be looking for alternatives to this prohibitionist policies, maybe we are reaching the point of change (like when they allow the consumption of alcohol and tobacco), and this will make it easier for Mexico, but if this change would not happen soon, maybe it will become true that Mexico is a failed State, unless the Mexican society felt so compelled to fight that they were willing to pay a high price and willing to make incredible sacrifices in order to liberate themselves from this course, but with his level of education, his ethics and moral values (not properly the best) and a serious lack of culture (they are like new rich people!, blinded by the money!), my bet is that Mexico will become a Pakistan in America, Even they insisted that this is not true! (They are liars too!).